Wednesday, June 27, 2007

The One Minute Apple iPhone review


Hey, it's iPhone week after all. Smartphones Show 36 will feature my patented(!) one-minute Apple iPhone review - just the stuff you need to know - really.

4 comments:

Eric B said...

Judging by today’s selloff, I think potential customers are starting to realize how expensive the iPhone will be. If you sign the mid-range $99.99/mo service plan after purchasing the 8GB iPhone model, that alone will set you back $3000 during the two-year contract (without any accessories)!

Here’s a few other potential hurdles that could prevent the iPhone from exceeding its already lofty expectations:

* You must be an AT&T customer to use the iPhone. With a market share of 20%, that means 80% of wireless customers must cancel their current contracts to sign with AT&T. Being a Sprint customer, I would have to pay a $175 cancellation on top of the $3000 price tag for the iPhone. AT&T’s exclusive contract runs through 2009.
* Only 4 & 8GB of hard drive space? My tiny video iPod holds 30 GB for less than $200.
* Recent surveys have shown that the majority of IT departments will not even consider the iPhone due to its PC incompatibilities & exclusive AT&T contract. That will dampen business spending & all but eliminate demand for the higher-tier contracts.

This is the ultimate “sell the news” scenario. On Jan 9th 2007, Steve Jobs announced the iPhone at the Macworld Conference & Expo. The stock has since been on fire rising 50% to $125, adding $30 billion to the company's market capitalization. Will the iPhone really hold that much value for Apple? This huge runup comes after a fantastic finish to 2006 after Apple’s stock bottomed out at $50 in October. Thus, nearly everyone holding Apple is sitting on huge gains.

Expect an Apple selloff on Friday when the iPhone is finally released. 3 similar mini-selloffs have occurred during this recent runup:

* June 26th: Apple announces 6 AT&T service plans for the iPhone. The stock drops 3% on investor concerns over the high prices.
* June 11th: Steve Jobs shows off the iPhone at Apple’s World Wide Developer's Conference. The stock falls 5% after investors saw no “surprises”.
* March 20th: Apple beats 4th quarter analyst earnings & revenue estimates. The stock falls on profit taking.

Apple’s recent success has created impossible expectations. With all the mega-hype already priced into the stock, just meeting expectations will create a selloff. I plan to sell tomorrow and buy back in a couple months. Longer-term investors need not worry because the future looks bright with Macs gaining market share & the iPods continuing their dominant foothold on the music industry.

Abhishek Krishnan said...

Hey Steve,
Thanks.. I have linked you too.. Looking forward to learn a lot from your site.
Have a great day,
Abhishek

kathy green said...

Its interesting to read older posts on the iPhone. We are now 200 days post sales on iPhone, and Apple has sold 4M units. That's a WOW! >20% market share in smart phones.

Steve Litchfield said...

Yes, the iPhone has done well in the USA. But 20% in the States is a drop in the worldwide ocean. For example, S60 smartphones (based on Symbian OS) sell 4 million units every FORTNIGHT. The iPhone's market share worldwide is down below 1%. Still a great concept and device though.